2024 funding by university for Commonwealth supported places

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The Universities Accord final report noted the problem of ‘no consolidated source of government expenditure by higher education provider and program (such as the Commonwealth Grant Scheme)’. It is one of the many reporting and data availability issues that make understanding Australia’s higher education system unnecessarily difficult.

CGS revenue by higher education provider

In January, after a laborious process of transcribing information from funding agreements, I published the ‘higher education courses’ and ‘designated courses’ funding allocations. To this I have now added funding determinations information on demand driven Indigenous funding, the medical student loading, estimated HECS-HELP lending as of May 2024 and estimated upfront student contributions, also of May 2024. You can download the spreadsheet here. [Update 17/06/24: with revised funding agreements, 15 universities have increased higher education courses funding. The updated spreadsheet can be downloaded here.]

The chart below aggregates the programs into their two main categories, the CGS and student contributions, and ranks them from the largest recipient of funds, Monash University at $722.4 million, to the smallest, Charles Darwin University at $157.8 million.

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Limits on international student numbers could reduce enrolments to well below the official cap

Andrew Norton3 Comments

I am not opposed to changing international student migration rules and education provider requirements to moderate problems long associated with international education, including “dodgy” colleges, inadequate student preparation, student poverty, student exploitation and “permanently temporary” migration.

Multiple steps towards minimising these problems have already been announced or taken, with increased financial requirements for a student visa added last week. Most changes announced before last Saturday are justifiable.

But capping international student numbers including down to a course level, as announced over the weekend, is a bad move.

The caps will face all the problems I have identified with bureaucratic allocation of domestic student funding. Because numbers will be allocated between universities and courses according to a politician or bureaucrat’s view of where students should enrol, rather than where students want to enrol, actual enrolments are likely to be well below the capped level.

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Bruce Chapman’s multi-rate marginal HELP repayment system – the PM’s ‘simpler’ option?

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Last week the prime minister was asked about changes to the HELP loan system.  In response he referred to Accord recommendations that ‘the system can be made simpler and be made fairer’ (emphasis added), and that ‘we’ll be making announcements pretty soon on that’.

‘Fairer’ probably means a lower-of HELP debt indexation formula, moving the indexation date so that more recent compulsory repayments can be taken into account, and a marginal rate repayment system to remove high effective marginal tax rates.

But what did the PM mean by ‘simpler’? I’m guessing that this refers to moving away from the current 18-threshold and rate repayment system to a system with fewer thresholds.

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Lower-of CPI and Wage Price Index (WPI) HELP debt indexation – inherent weaknesses and design issues

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This morning The Conversation published my argument, made last month on this blog, that HELP debt should be indexed at the lower of CPI or 4%. I argue that this is better than the other suggested ‘lower-of’ options, such as the government bond rate, the RBA cash rate, or a wage increase indicator. The Universities Accord final report chose the last option, specifically the Wage Price Index (WPI). WPI measures changes in hourly rates in the same job.

All the CPI alternatives have a relationship with CPI

A problem with all the lower-of proposals, except a fixed maximum, is that they have a relationship to CPI. If inflation starts going up the RBA increases its cash rate and government bond holders want higher interest rates to protect their real value. Workers and unions, often supported by policymakers, seek inflation compensating wage increases.

For wages set nationally, the federal government wants the minimum wage increase linked to inflation this year. If the Fair Work Commission grants this increase, minimum wage and other CPI-driven wage rises will flow through to future WPI figures.

Real wage increases, over-and-above CPI, also push up WPI. Aged care workers have recently been awarded a large real wage increase. Statistics on enterprise agreements show wage increases returning to their normal pattern of exceeding both WPI and CPI.

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The politics of multi-rate marginal HELP repayments

Andrew Norton2 Comments

In a couple of previous posts, I examined reasons for moving to a marginal rate system for repaying HELP debt, as proposed by the Universities Accord final report, and what the rates might be.

Under a marginal rate system HELP debtors would repay a % of all income above a threshold amount, instead of a % of all income once a threshold is reached, as now. An advantage of marginal rate repayment systems is that they can reduce effective marginal tax rates. High EMTRs discourage people from taking on more paid work. In some cases under the current system EMTRs exceed 100%, so disposable income goes down despite nominal income going up.

The Accord final report and the minister, Jason Clare, also suggest reducing annual repayments, at least for lower income HELP debtors. Except for HELP debtors just above an income threshold in the current system (especially the first one, where there are very high EMTRs) this is not an inherent feature of marginal rate systems compared to current arrangements. But it could be a political selling point for a marginal rate system designed to reduce repayments.

To cut annual repayments for lower income HELP debtors without causing a major reduction in HELP repayment revenue the government would need to introduce a multi-rate marginal system. This is implied in the Accord final report discussion. Multi-rate systems progressively increase the marginal rate as income goes up. There are many possible sets of rates, but my previous post looks at 7%-17%-22% and 10%-15%-20% models.

This post goes through some of the political implications of moving to a marginal rate system.

How will the percentage numbers be interpreted?

One initial challenge will be convincing people that a 7% or 10% first marginal rate will usually reduce their repayments compared to the current seemingly lower rates. How can charging 7% increase disposable income compared to 1%?!

Of course the answer is what the percentages are of, but for people half paying attention, who have never thought about marginal versus whole of income rates before, a higher percentage rate reducing their repayments is going to seem counter-intuitive.

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Possible marginal HELP repayment rates under Universities Accord reforms

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The Universities Accord final report proposes changing how HELP repayments are calculated. It recommends abolishing our current system, which levies a % of all income once an income threshold is reached. It would be replaced with a system that charges a % of income above the threshold – a marginal rate system.

A major reason given for this change was to end the ‘unfair situation’ of some HELP debtors having very high effective marginal tax rates. These can exceed 100% in some cases, so that an increase in taxable income results in lower disposable income. In addition to the fairness issues, high EMTRs can lead to people working fewer hours and less income tax revenue.

Other Accord final report comments, however, suggest HELP repayment redesign with purposes beyond the EMTR issue. While not specifying thresholds or marginal rates, the report suggests a system in which the ‘majority of HELP debtors who make a repayment … would repay less in a given year’. They warn, however, that a ‘small number of higher income debtors (likely less than 10% of HELP debtors) [would] make higher repayments in a given year’.

Subsequent Jason Clare media interviews suggest that policy thinking on repayment systems has moved beyond a general preference for a marginal rate system. Referencing unpublished research by Bruce Chapman, Clare said on the day the final report was released that ‘someone on an income of $75,000 a year would pay every year about $1,000 less.’ He gave the same example again this week.

Speaking to the SMH, Chapman expanded on how the new system might work. He envisaged a multi-rate marginal HELP repayment system: ‘a person earning $86,000 would only be taxed the 5 per cent repayment rate on the income above the threshold at which the rate kicks in, being $84,430. All income below that threshold would be levied at the lower rates.’ A multi-rate marginal system is also consistent with the Accord final report reference to some HELP debtors repaying more each year than they do now.

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Why does the Universities Accord final report suggest repaying HELP debt on a marginal rate – a % of income above the threshold, rather than all income?

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One quirk of the HELP repayment system is that, on reaching each repayment threshold, the debtor pays a % of their entire income. England and New Zealand followed Australia in creating income contingent student loans. But their repayment systems are based on a % of their income above the threshold – they have marginal rate systems. The Australian income tax system also uses marginal rates.

The Universities Accord final report HELP repayment recommendations include ‘moving to arrangements based on marginal income’.

As explained below, this Accord change would reduce ‘effective marginal tax rates’ – the loss of disposable income on each dollar above the threshold. Under the current system, EMTRs can exceed 100% – so that earning an extra dollar reduces rather than increases a HELP debtor’s annual disposable income. The Accord final report calls this an ‘unfair situation’.

The Accord final report does not specify a marginal rate – an issue I discuss in another post. England and New Zealand have marginal loan repayment rates of 9% and 12% respectively above their repayment thresholds.

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Changing the HELP indexation date – 30 November?

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A common HELP indexation complaint over the last couple of years is that compulsory repayments during the financial year are not deducted prior to indexation. I explained the current system in this post last year.

In that post, I noted that one reason for not taking compulsory HELP repayments out prior to the current 1 June indexation date is that their exact amount is not yet known by the ATO. The repayment amount is calculated after the financial year ends, on 30 June, and during tax return processing. There are many reasons why HELP repayments sent via the PAYG system could be less or more than the final repayment amount.

The ATO has raised another administrative obstacle, which is that HELP repayments are not separately identified in the PAYG information it receives from employers. As the ATO collects salary information, and already knows who is a HELP debtor, it perhaps would not be that hard to infer why the amount withheld from an employee is higher than income tax rates require. But clarity on what is intended as a HELP repayment would require system re-designs for the ATO and employers. HELP PAYG information would still often vary from the final correct amount, so the system would need a reconciliation after 30 June, with corresponding adjustment of indexation up or down. This would add complexity and administrative costs. These practical issues rule out real-time reduction of HELP balances.

The Accord final report instead recommends another option, changing the date of HELP indexation. They do not, however, suggest a date.

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HELP debt indexation at the lower of CPI or a fixed maximum rate – giving HELP borrowers more certainty than the Universities Accord final report lower of CPI or WPI recommendation

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Over the last two years high CPI-driven HELP debt indexation – 3.9% in 2022, 7.1% in 2023, probably in the vicinity of 5% this year – has been a major issue. It has brought to public attention HELP debt issues that had been waiting for their trigger.

The last time HELP debt indexation exceeded 5% was in 2001, as the the new GST flowed through into prices and an indexation rate of 5.3%. At that time 1.1 million people had HECS (as it then was) debts of about $7.2 billion. A Factiva search shows that this unusually high indexation was newsworthy at the time. But with much lower HELP balances per person than now the average debt increase was only $350. The indexation issue then went quiet for two decades, except when the government wanted to charge more than CPI.

The reason for HELP indexation’s long low media profile was that between 2002 and 2021 it averaged 2.4%. It was below 2% between 2016 and 2021. This extended period of low inflation left HELP indexation as a latent issue, as increases in HELP debtor numbers and average debts gave it far more potential to cause significant personal cost and political trouble than it had in 2001.

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How would student places be allocated by the proposed Australian Tertiary Education Commission?

Andrew Norton2 Comments

Based on the Universities Accord interim report I was concerned that its proposed tertiary education commission would be highly interventionist, controlling university enrolments to meet the government’s equity, attainment and skills targets. I called it Job-ready Graduates 2.0.

The Australian Tertiary Education Commission proposed in the Universities Accord final report is – I think, a lot of detail remains to be seen – considerably better than the version of my policy nightmares last year.

The overall funding system would have more central steering than now, but on my reading ATEC probably will not routinely micromanage – that university A must offer B places in C course and fill them with students meeting criteria D, E or F. That was the approach of recent ad hoc student place allocations, such as the 20,000 new places for skills shortages and equity groups. The Accord final report admits that these places won’t be used. Even without recent soft demand, every condition added to a student place reduced the chance that a student could be found to fill it.

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