My Senate inquiry submission on the government’s student places capping bill

Submissions to the Senate inquiry into the government’s student places capping bill – with the official but misleading title of the Universities Accord (Opening the Doors of Opportunity) Bill 2026 – were due last Friday. The submissions are not yet appearing on the Senate’s website but mine is here. [Update: Submissions are now available.]

It extracts the needed amendments to the bill from my series of explainer posts: on setting the number of Commonwealth supported places, on ATEC’s distributions of CSPs to public universities and to private universities and non-university providers, on capping over-enrolments, on effectively demand driven funding for equity students, on needs based funding, on allocating international student commencements, on ministerial conditions on student places funding, and on ATEC’s options for rewarding and punishing universities.

I will post again on the over-enrolment parts of the bill – in competition with Job-ready Graduates student contributions as the worst domestic student policy idea of the 2020s – but copy in my submission overview as a summary of its key themes:

The Universities Accord (Opening the Doors of Opportunity) Bill does not do what it says on the cover.

The bill’s sole mechanism for increasing enrolments in universities is more efficient use of existing funding.

The bill does not appropriate any new funding for additional student places. As under the current system, the minister will need to work through the government’s internal budget processes to secure that money.

By contrast, the bill has two new features that will reduce how many student places universities can offer.

The most important of these is caps on over-enrolments, on student contribution-only places delivered by universities above their allocated number of student places. If these laws had been in place in 2025, the maximum over-enrolments allowed would have permitted about half of the over-enrolments actually delivered, at the cost of more than 20,000 places across the system.

A planned default allocation of student places to public universities, while intended to reduce unused places, also threatens cuts. To use an example, a university’s default allocation of places for 2029 will be the lower of their places allocated for 2028 or the places actually delivered in 2027. If the university had received additional places for 2028 and respected their over-enrolment limit for 2027 the default position would wipe out some or all of their new 2028 places.

Due to problems with the bill’s drafting it will not achieve some of its other goals. The explanatory memorandum presents the default allocation described above as preventing a university’s allocation going backwards, but this is not what the bill itself guarantees.

The bill’s explanatory memorandum recognises problems with the current definition of low socioeconomic status, but the bill itself inserts a provision that will reduce how many low SES students attract needs based funding.

Another major issue with the bill is excessively broad ministerial discretion. The bill lets the minister impose conditions on receipt of Commonwealth Grant Scheme funds with no restrictions on how this power can be used. For allocations of international student commencements, the bill suspends an existing limit on the minister directing ATEC in respect of specific education providers.

The 2026 early implementation of enrolment restrictions, without statutory authority, shows that the government cannot just be trusted to do the right thing. Clear legal limits are required.

Ends

The fall and rise of postgraduate Commonwealth supported places

The Centre for the Study of Higher Education at the University of Melbourne has today published The fall and rise of postgraduate Commonwealth supported places, which I co-authored with Ren-Hao Xu. It is part of our research project on university decision-making under Job-ready Graduates, with other papers here and here.

As the title suggests, the paper shows how domestic postgraduate coursework places became increasingly full-fee before a reversal, so that now, for the first time since the 1990s, most places in public universities are Commonwealth supported. Additional flexibility in the use of CSPs introduced by Job-ready Graduates facilitated this growth.

This change saved postgraduate students significant amounts of money, but the scale of CSP provision looks fragile. We argue that it was partly a byproduct of excess capacity created by weak undergraduate demand in the post-lockdown years. As that demand returns pressure to move CSPs back to undergraduate courses will grow, compounded by tighter controls on CSP numbers in the ATEC era.

Financing domestic postgraduate coursework

With a few niche exceptions, all public university domestic undergraduates are in Commonwealth supported places (CSPs). But domestic postgraduate coursework – graduate certificate through to masters by coursework – has long been a mixed economy, with both Commonwealth supported and full-fee places on offer, sometimes in the same course. Full-fee students can use FEE-HELP to finance their studies.

Until Job-ready Graduates took effect in 2021, postgraduate CSPs were a ‘designated’ category, along with sub-bachelor places. Postgraduate CSPs were allocated to universities by funding cluster (groups of disciplines with the same Commonwealth contribution) in university-government funding agreements.

The spread of designated CSPs across postgraduate courses reflected historical allocations and ad hoc decisions on new places. These ad hoc allocations were not principle free – recurrent justifications included providing places for postgraduate initial professional entry courses and addressing skills shortages – but the cumulative consequences were untidy. University allocations of postgraduate CSPs ranged from dozens to thousands. This created messy local markets. Universities struggled to fill full-fee places when their competitors had CSPs.

Job-ready Graduates abolished specific allocations of postgraduate places, except in medicine. It put postgraduate coursework into a single fund with sub-bachelor and bachelor degree places. The Commonwealth contribution funding each university could receive for these places is their ‘maximum basic grant amount’ (MBGA).

From 2021, universities decided whether to use their CSPs in postgraduate courses. These decisions were not straightforward. A fixed maximum basic grant amount created a potential trade-off with undergraduate places. A second trade-off existed with full-fee postgraduate places, which usually generate significantly more revenue per place than a CSP.

Trends in postgraduate full-fee and Commonwealth supported places

Across the entire sector, including private higher education providers, domestic full-fee postgraduate places are just a majority, at 50.2% of all places.

But looking at public universities only, CSPs became a similarly narrow majority in 2021, the first year of Job-ready Graduates. The CSP share stood at 58% in 2024. The relative shares are back to where they were in the late 1990s, but with CSPs trending up rather than down.

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The proposed new funding system, part 5: What has happened to effectively demand driven funding for equity groups?

In his second reading speech for the Universities Accord (Opening the Doors of Opportunity) Bill 2026 education minister Jason Clare said that it will ‘help more people from poor families and the regions and the bush to get into university. In simple terms, if you get the marks, and you’ve got what it takes you will get a place.’  Later in the speech, he described the new policy as ‘effectively uncapping the system for these students’.

This is the latest iteration of a concept first announced as ‘effectively demand driven’ funding in the Accord final report and then described by the Department of Education as ‘managed demand driven funding’.

Whatever its name, how this policy would be implemented remained unclear. The policy implies eligibility criteria – ‘if you get the marks’ – that do not exist at the system level. It raised questions about the coherence of the government’s position. Does it make sense to impose tougher caps on enrolments generally while claiming to ‘effectively uncap’ a sub-section of students? Isn’t this just a part-solution to an avoidable problem caused by hard caps?

The silence of the bill

Anyone hoping that the funding bill would provide clarity will be disappointed. There is no uncapping of places for any category of student that isn’t already demand driven. But another feature of the system gives ATEC some flexibility to allocate additional places late in the enrolment period.

A recap on the new system

First a recap on how the new system will work. The first step is for the minister to set a total allocation pool of places, which will cover all coursework places other than medicine and the demand driven programs for Indigenous students.

The second step is for ATEC to allocate those places to universities. This will be a combination of ‘core student load’, a historical figure, and an ‘additional growth allocation’. Together these are the ‘domestic student profile’ of each university.

On top of the domestic student profile universities will have an over-enrolment buffer, of 750 places or 5% of the domestic student profile, whichever is lower. As part of transition measures some universities can have total places exceeding these levels but caps on commencing students.

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The proposed new funding system, part 4: Needs based funding

The idea behind needs based funding is that universities should be paid according to student characteristics, not just the disciplines of the subjects students take. While agreeing with the broad concept behind needs based funding, I have criticised the government’s approach for its limited use of direct measures of need.

Needs based funding as implemented modifies existing programs rather than making a major conceptual change to the funding system. It converts equity group funding and a regional campus loading to a per student basis, rather than the previous formula-driven shares of a fixed maximum fund.

I won’t re-prosecute my criticisms of the government’s policies in detail here. My focus will be on the how these policies have been translated into legislation through the Universities Accord (Opening the Doors of Opportunity) Bill 2026, introduced into Parliament in late June.

I have two main concerns about the bill compared to expectations. Low SES status will be defined by the time of enrolment in a unit of study, rather than the first address on enrolment with the provider, and so numbers will be under-stated. Also the minister can easily vary down the loadings for various student characteristics and regional campus payments for continuing students.

As with my previous explainer posts on this bill, I am happy to receive feedback via comments or direct communication.

Interim needs based funding

Needs based funding exists this year under interim legal measures. This post describes 2026 funding rules for low SES and Indigenous students. This post explains 2026 funding rules for regional campus students.

In those posts I was critical of their poor-practice legal basis, which allowed the minister to pay needs-based funding grants (or not) entirely at his discretion, with the substantive rules for allocation in a Department of Education document with no legal standing.

The bill will give the needs based funding programs a much stronger legal basis while still leaving significant ministerial discretion.

All legislative references in the following text are to the Higher Education Support Act 2003 unless otherwise specified, ‘current’ signalling the legislation now in force, ‘new’ signalling the amending bill.

Which higher education providers are eligible?

A provider is eligible if it has been allocated Commonwealth supported places for the year: new section 39-10. This applies to both the equity and regional parts of needs-based funding.

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The proposed new funding system, part 2: ATEC allocations of Commonwealth supported places to public universities

In the previous post, I outlined how the minister would set total numbers of Commonwealth supported student places if the Universities Accord (Opening the Doors of Opportunity) Bill 2026 is passed. This post looks at how the Australian Tertiary Education Commission (ATEC) will allocate CSPs to public universities. ATEC will also allocate places to other higher education providers, discussed in a later post.

To recap on the previous post, ATEC will allocate places from a ‘total allocation pool’ (TAP) determined by the minister. ATEC will not allocate medical places, which the minister will do. ATEC will also not allocate demand driven places, currently Indigenous students in bachelor degrees or medicine.

All legislative references in the following text are to the Higher Education Support Act 2003 unless otherwise specified, ‘current’ signalling the legislation now in force, ‘new’ signalling the amending bill.

Feedback is welcome via the comments or direct communication. This is complex legislation and I may misunderstand things. Three revisions to my first post so far.

Total number of Commonwealth supported places per university

The total number of CSPs allocated to a university will be known as their ‘domestic student profile’: new section 30-15(2).

The domestic student profile will have up to two components, the ‘core student load’ and an ‘additional growth allocation’: new section 30-25.

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The proposed new funding system, part 1: Setting the number of fully-funded Commonwealth supported places

This post is the first in a series of explainers on how the new Commonwealth supported student funding system will operate if the Universities Accord (Opening the Doors of Opportunity) Bill 2026 is passed.

The series is primarily aimed at policy advisers and people working in university planning offices. I covered the most important issue for the general public and prospective university students in this Conversation article.

This post looks at how the total number of fully-funded Commonwealth supported places will be determined. A fully-funded place is one for which both a Commonwealth and a student contribution is paid. Student contribution only places will be discussed in a later post.

The current system

As a refresher, the current CSP allocation system has three components:

  • Designated courses, where the minister allocates, via university funding agreements, specific number of CSPs. Currently only medicine for non-Indigenous students is designated. The funding formula is the Commonwealth contribution rate * the number of student places delivered or the allocated number of places, whichever is the lower.
  • Demand driven courses, currently only Indigenous students in bachelor degrees or medical courses. The funding formula is the Commonwealth contribution rate * the number of student places delivered. Effectively, universities and students decide on the allocation.
  • A ‘higher education courses’ grant in which each university gets a maximum basic grant amount (MBGA) to cover CSPs not in the previous two categories. The value of CSPs delivered in this category is calculated as the Commonwealth contribution rate * the number of student places delivered. If the value of these places exceeds the MBGA the university gets the MBGA. If the value is below the MBGA in theory the university receives that amount. In practice, in recent years, universities have received the full value of their MBGA via other programs despite not delivering CSPs of the required value.

The proposed reforms

All three of these components will change if the bill passes.

The overall higher education courses category will be allocated in CSPs instead of dollars, with no maximum basic grant amount. Total places will be determined by the minister, allocations to specific providers will be determined by ATEC.

Designated places will become a sub-category of higher education courses, used to allocate/restrict places in specific kinds of courses. While the minister decides which courses are designated, ATEC allocates designated places to providers.

Medicine will move into a new, separate category, still functionally equivalent to designation but allocated by the minister (as now) instead of ATEC.

The existing demand driven categories will be maintained and include a ministerial discretion to add new categories of courses. There will be a new mechanism to cap demand driven places if needed.

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Job-ready Graduates – its effects on university Commonwealth supported places decisions

The student contribution increases of Job-ready Graduates get regular media coverage, focusing on the plight of debt-laden arts graduates. Far less attention is given to how JRG affected university decision-making.

For universities JRG had multiple elements. Total overall Commonwealth supported student funding rates by discipline were changed, some increasing but most decreasing. The changes to student contributions altered incentives for over-enrolments. Previous separate allocations of sub-bachelor and postgraduate Commonwealth supported places (CSPs)were ended, merged into a single fund with bachelor degrees.

To explore these effects, Ren-Hao Xu from UWA and I interviewed 15 leaders and officials from five universities in 2024 and 2025. We chose universities with various sizes, locations, missions and rankings to find out how they interpreted the JRG incentives and how these affected decision making. An academic article reporting our methodology and findings was recently published in the Australian Educational Researcher journal.

Over-enrolment

One thing I was especially curious about was to what extent over-enrolment – taking students on the student contribution only – was deliberate and to what extent accidental, reflecting the inherent difficulties in hitting precise full-time equivalent enrolment targets.

For the over-enrolled universities in our study the answer was mostly deliberate.

Two universities in our study had mission-related reasons for over-enrolling. The vice-chancellor of an equity-focused university told us that ‘we’ve also felt that we should over-enrol based on demand due to the university’s mission to serve students from disadvantaged backgrounds.’ The vice-chancellor of a regional university was willing to over-enrol as there was no other local university students could attend.

Other universities took a more strategic approach. One noted the likely Accord system re-set, knowing that during past policy shifts enrolments as of a recent year were used at the basis of the new funding system. This was a chance to lock in a larger base funding amount (an approach that has so far only partly worked, with just $50 million allocated to convert over-enrolments to fully-funded places).

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Self-reported status by educational attainment, an update

It’s common to hear concern about the ‘status’ of vocational education. An article yesterday in The Conversation reported a ‘stigma’ associated with school leavers choosing vocational education. ATEC’s recent discussion paper on a more joined-up tertiary system noted ‘a lack of parity of esteem’ between vocational and higher education. There was a parliamentary inquiry on status of vocational education a few years ago.

For the university-educated academics and bureaucrats who devise measures of status, such as the index of education and occupation used to determine higher education low SES, it seems self-evident that higher education ‘ranks’ above vocational education. In higher education policy the problem is not that educational hierarchy exists, but that access to its upper echelons correlates with family background.

But in a late 2010s blog post I argued that, outside this top-of-the-AQF bubble, educational status is present but seems less significant. The post reported on young people rating the ‘prestige’ of different qualifications and general social survey results of self-reported status by educational level. Although status-focused individuals seek the top educational brands, this does not fully transfer through to general status.

Self-reported status by education

The self-reported status measure asks survey respondents to rate themselves on a 1 (labelled ‘bottom’) to 10 (labelled ‘top’) scale. The chart below reports average results, comparing 2015 from the original post to the 2023 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes.

While survey sample problems may affect the results – with 1010 responses to this question in 2015 and 883 in 2023 – self-reported status declined across all broad qualification groups. Perhaps falling living standards are perceived as a loss of status.

Self-reported status fell by the most for people with a bachelor degree or above. A consequence of this is that the average degree holder status was in 2023 only 0.4 points higher than the average upper vocational qualification holder, down from 0.7 in 2015.

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ATEC’s interim statement of strategic priorities

Yesterday the Australian Tertiary Education Commission issued an interim statement of strategic priorities. This statement will guide university mission based compacts for 2027. This post covers the legal status of the statement, its apparent approach to management of the sector via compacts, and what it proposes in the areas of skills, First Nations, equity, teaching quality, VET-higher education relations, and research.

Decision-making under the ATEC system

When fully operational the ATEC decision-making process will operate in the sequence shown in the chart below.

Despite the ATEC Act 2026 officially coming into force on 29 April 2026, ATEC’s interim statement seems to be operating in the legal limbo the organisation has been in since being established as the ‘interim ATEC’ in July 2025.

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Treasury’s take on student debt repayment times under Job-ready Graduates

Thanks to a Guardian story based on a FoI request we now know that Treasury has modelled changes to HELP debt repayment times under Job-ready Graduates. They are six years too late to influence the original policy, but better that than never as JRG remains a live issue.

Treasury used much more sophisticated methods than my own recent analysis of arts graduate repayment prospects. However, Treasury does not use the new student debt repayment system introduced in 2025-26, and so under-estimates current repayment times. I will return to this, but Treasury has produced a helpful conceptual and empirical guide to what the Morrison government should have considered prior to Job-ready Graduates being proposed, and the Albanese government should think about when redesigning the system.

Debt and income data

Instead of just using debt levels based on three years of the relevant student contributions for each course, Treasury put into their model actual subjects taken, with data from the Department of Education included in PLIDA. So the model captures extra debts caused by double degrees, changing courses or failing and repeating subjects. It also captures lower debts of people who never complete a course.

My analysis used Australian citizen median income by single year of age, as recorded using ATO and DSS income linked to Census records. For years 1 to 10 after university Treasury used a model based on actual debtor income in PLIDA (which also has ATO and DSS data). These are critical years for repayment for most debtors, so this is important. Treasury’s model uses Census data to estimate repayments after 10 years.

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