Category: Migrants and migration

Points-tested visas and international students – possible changes to the points

Andrew NortonLeave a comment

In a previous post I described the three points-tested visas that international students use to achieve permanent residence or a clear pathway to it. These are the subclass 189 Skilled Independent visa, the subclass 190 Skilled Nominated visa, with the nomination by state and territory governments, and the subclass 491 Skilled Work Regional (Provisional) visa, which is also state and territory nominated.

The total number of these visas awarded to identifiable former international students peaked in 2022-23 at just under 40,000. It was 31,783 in 2024-25, the latest available full financial year data. The chances of former international students getting points-tested visas dropped more sharply, due to increased demand but fewer places.

This post looks at potential changes to the points available in the points-tested visas and how these might affect international students.

Maximum points for different attributes

The chart below shows the maximum points available in categories relevant to all three points-tested visas. For study location, credentialed language (interpreting or translating), a professional year (training linked to work experience), Australian study, and a specialist educational qualification (research degree in science, IT or engineering) the points are a flat number. Applicants either meet the criteria or they do not. The other categories offer graded points up to the maximum shown, for example the system favours more over less skilled work experience and ‘superior’ over ‘proficient’ English.

The maximum standard points total 145, although some combinations are unlikely. Somebody with extensive skilled work experience probably does not need a professional year. Combining maximum points for both Australian and overseas skilled work experience would block maximum points for age.

For the subclass 190 visa, applicants receive an extra 5 points for state or territory agency sponsorship and for the subclass 491 visa this sponsorship is worth an extra 15 points.

Read More »

Restrictions on secondary student visa holders – the legal detail

Andrew Norton1 Comment

After Tony Burke gave his National Press Club address on migration I wrote a blog post on new limits on secondary visa holders, the partners and children of the primary visa holders. Not much detail was available at the time. This post draws on the since enacted legislative instruments to provide this detail.

The new rules on student secondary visa holders interact with new restrictions on onshore student visa applications. So it is not just who can apply for a secondary visa, it is where they can be when they do so.

The main categories of students who can bring partners and children are: students from the Pacific region or ASEAN countries, doctoral students, students sponsored by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade or the Department of Defence, and students with fully-funded scholarships from a foreign government. Data on foreign scholarships is not available, but based on recent history the other categories would support about 10,000 secondary visa holders per year.

In addition to this 10,000, transitional categories of current secondary student visa holders already in Australia can remain while their primary visa holder gets another visa for a higher AQF course or due to delays in completing their course.

New restrictions on secondary student visa holders

The default position is now that secondary applicants are not permitted unless they fall into an exempt category.

DFAT and Defence sponsored students

Primary applicants sponsored by the Department of Defence or Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade can bring their partner and/or children: new paragraph 1222(3)(da)(i) of the Migration Regulations 1994.

In 2025-26 3,397 primary student visas were granted to Defence and Foreign Affairs students, accompanied by 1,066 secondary visa applicants.

Exempt countries

Students from Pacific-regional countries can bring partners and children as secondary applicants: new paragraph 1222(3)(da)(i) of the Migration Regulations 1994.

Read More »

New restrictions on onshore applications for student visas

Andrew Norton3 Comments

As foreshadowed in Tony Burke’s September 2026 National Press Club speech, the government has now implemented a range of policy changes for onshore student visa applications. There is a new general rule against onshore student visa applications, from which there are exceptions, the most significant of which is letting current students apply for a new student visa if it is at a higher qualification level. The Department of Home Affairs summary of the changes is here.

Why is policy changing?

The reason for this change is to limit the number of current visa holders applying for a student visa to prolong their stay in Australia.

Onshore applicants for a student visa get a bridging visa while their application is processed. As of December 2025 the median processing time for an onshore student visa application was 134 days, delivering another 4 to 5 months living and working in Australia even if the visa application is unsuccessful.

Rejected onshore student visa applicants can appeal the decision in the Administrative Review Tribunal. As of 31 August 2026 the ART had a backlog of 53,347 student visa appeals. Applicants receive a bridging visa while waiting for their case to be decided. The official indication of median processing time to decide a student visa refusal is 17 months, but that might be too low. For the first two months of 2026-27 the ART resolved only 1,500 applications per month, although ending in-person hearings in most cases may speed things up.

As of 31 December 2025, 107,449 people were on bridging visas while waiting for a student visa application to be resolved.

Onshore applications – key statistics

Due to other policy changes, onshore student visa applications were already trending down prior to this announcement. In 2025, 135,979 onshore student visa applications were made, 30,000 below 2019 pre-COVID levels. In 2025, 54% of onshore student visa applications were for higher education, with the absolute number still above 2019 levels. Policy change has hit VET and ELICOS harder than higher education.

For 2026 up to August, 95,936 onshore applications have been made, 4.7% fewer than by August 2025. For higher education as of August 2026 56,898 applications have been made, down 1.3% on the same time last year. The higher education share of the total is 59%. Note that in the Department of Home Affairs statistics ‘higher education’ does not include postgraduate research or DFAT or Department of Defence sponsored students taking higher education courses.

Read More »

Points-tested visas and international students – demand and supply

Andrew Norton1 Comment

As explained in a previous post, former international students have a new possible employer-sponsored route to permanent residence via the Skills in Demand visa. But their options for points-tested visas are likely to decline.

In this post, I outline the points-tested visas, report on international student success in obtaining these visas, and describe the level of demand for them. I conclude with migration planning levels for 2026-27, which allocate fewer total places to points-tested visas.

In a following post, I will look at long-foreshadowed changes to points-tested visas and how these may affect international students.

What are points-tested visas?

The key idea behind points-tested visas is that applicants get ‘points’ for various attributes. The more points applicants accrue the more likely they are to get a visa. The theoretical maximum number of points from standard attributes across all three visas is 145. The minimum points to be eligible for a points-tested visa is 65.

But a specific number of points does not equal a visa. People who want points-tested visas submit expressions of interest. An EoI lasts for up to two years. Periodically the Department of Home Affairs invites people from the EoI pool to apply for a visa linked to listed occupations.

Three points-tested visas are currently available: the subclass 189 Skilled Independent visa, the subclass 190 Skilled Nominated visa, with the nomination by state and territory governments, and the subclass 491 Work Regional (Provisional) visa, also state and territory nominated. Some older visas are included in the data below: the subclass 489 Skilled Regional (Provisional) visa, which was replaced by the subclass 491 visa from November 2019, and the subclass 188 Business Innovation and Investment visa, which closed to new applicants on 31 July 2024.

International students and points-tested visas

As noted in my earlier post on international students and permanent residence, only former students moving directly from a student visa or a temporary graduate visa can be tracked using my main data source. This misses people who previously held a student-related visa but hold a different visa when seeking or receiving a points-tested visa. The figures presented are therefore at the lowest end of a range.

The subclass 190 Skilled Nominated visa is the most significant points-tested visa for international students. It has been the largest single category since 2019-20, on several occasions making up more than half the total. It was 48% of former international student visa grants in 2024-25.

Bar graph showing the number of former international students and points-tested visas by various visa types from 2016-2025, including 188 Business Innovation, Regional 489 & 491, 190 Skilled Nominated, and 189 Skilled Independent.
Read More »

Tony Burke’s changes to student visa policy – first draft on secondary visa holders

Andrew Norton1 Comment

Update 9/10/2026: More up-to-date detail on this subject is now available at this post on the legal detail of the secondary student visa policy.

As foreshadowed in recent weeks, Tony Burke has today announced changes to student visa policy. Unfortunately at the moment – about 5.30pm on 17 September – there is little detail other than what has been given to journalists and Burke’s National Press Club address. I will update this post as necessary when more information is available.

The key changes are restrictions on secondary visa holders, for both students and temporary graduate visa holders, and additional limits on changing courses.

It appears that the secondary visa holder changes are prospective and won’t apply to students already in Australia, but this needs cross-checking against more policy detail. In the first draft of this post I will focus on secondary visa holder restrictions.

Summary of secondary student-related visa numbers

I analysed secondary student visa holder numbers earlier this month. Some key points from this analysis:

  • In recent years, annual secondary student visa holder grants have been in the 45,000-49,000 range.
  • Based on age group analysis, 27-28% of them are the children of students (proxy of age 19 years or less).
  • The ‘stock’ of secondary student visa holders present in Australia on a given day is already well off its peak of 84,846 in mid-2024, and was 67,549 on 31 July.
  • The flows and stocks of secondary student visa holders look anomalous. I think this is largely explained by a surge in secondary student visa grants in 2022-23 (77,599). Their primary visa holders have now mostly completed their courses and moved to temporary graduate visas or left the country, so outflows from secondary student visas have exceeded inflows.
  • As a result, as of 31 July secondary temporary graduate visa holders outnumber secondary student visa holders, 73,704 to 67,549.
  • Adult secondary student visa holders are likely to be an important aspect of the economics of coming to Australia for some students, with declared earnings of $1.3 billion in 2022-23. Secondary temporary graduate visa holders earned a similar amount.

New restrictions on secondary student visa holders

In line with recent policymaking preferences, the following groups will be exempt from restrictions on secondary student visa holders: research students, foreign affairs and defence sponsored students, students from the Pacific Islands, Timor-Leste and ASEAN countries. We can track their numbers through the student visa grants data. Over the last decade these visa categories have typically led to 10-11,000 annual secondary student visa grants. There was a spike in 2022-23, which included pent-up demand from the COVID border closure years.

Read More »

Pathways to permanent residence for former international students

Andrew Norton1 Comment

The Australian government is trying, without much success to date, to reduce the number of long-term temporary migrants. For student-related visa holders – people with student visas, temporary graduate visas, or former international students on bridging visas – this is primarily about reducing inflows of new visa holders and increasing outflows of existing visa holders. Another important element, however, is moving former students to permanent visas.

This post looks at recent trends in former international students achieving permanent residence. It concludes with a discussion of the subclass 482 Skills in Demand visa, which offes a new route to PR.

Permanent visas

My main data source is the Department of Home Affairs Student visa and Temporary Graduate visa program report. It only reports former students transitioning from these visas, and not those with another temporary visa prior to PR. An ABS analysis up to the 2021 Census found that over half the 587,000 former student visa holders with PR had first held three or more temporary visas. This total includes secondary applicants, who made up about a quarter of the total.

The Home Affairs data includes former students moving to visas that are probable sources of PR, which I discuss below. There is no primary/secondary visa holder split. As I showed in an earlier post, secondary visa holders are a significant share of the potential PR population, especially for temporary graduate visa holders.

Since 2022-23 the annual number of former international student visa holders getting PR has increased significantly. Before COVID it was around 20,000 a year, after COVID it was around 31,000 a year. These are primarily work-related visas, with the subclass 190 state or territory Skilled Nominated visa the largest category.

One-step moves from a student visa have become less common. Their share of the total halved from 40% of the total in 2019-20 to 20% in 2024-25. The two-step track – student, temporary graduate visa – to PR has become more common.

Read More »

The coming cuts to student-related secondary temporary visa holders

Andrew NortonLeave a comment

Last week The Australian reported on apparent forthcoming limits on student secondary visa holders, the partners and children of the primary visa holder students. This has been rumoured for months. Along with long-foreshadowed changes to points-tested permanent visas, restricting secondary visa holders is a major yet-to-be-deployed policy weapon against temporary migration.

This post looks at the characteristics of and trends in student-related secondary visa holders.

Student-related secondary visa population trends

While students rather than temporary graduate visa holders seem to be the main policy target, as the chart below shows the secondary student visa holder population is already trending down, while temporary graduate secondary visa holders are increasing. The overall totals have fluctuated in a narrow range around 140,000 since late 2023.

Student secondary visa grants

As the chart above suggests, the relationship between student and temporary graduate secondary visas has changed over time. The recent temporary graduate takeover partly reflects a prior spike in secondary student visa grants, shown in the chart below. This was part of a high general increase in student-related visa numbers due to pent-up demand and policy incentives I described in an earlier post.

Read More »

Higher education participation rates at age 19 – a migration data update

Andrew NortonLeave a comment

For many years I have published estimates of the domestic higher education participation rate at age 19. That age was chosen as it is the modal age of domestic higher education students.

To calculate a participation rate we need a count of domestic higher education students (Australian or NZ citizen, permanent resident) and a count of the ‘domestic’ population, that is all Australian or NZ citizens and permanent residents. There are significant issues with calculating both numbers – explained in this post from last year.

One of these issues is that the ABS population figures are inflated by temporary migrants. They need to be removed from the count to get a ‘domestic’ population figure. The ABS does not provide a temporary visa/domestic breakdown. As a workaround, my participation time series deducts international 19 year old higher education students from the ABS 19 year old population estimate.

A new methodology

This onshore higher education international students aged 19 correction, however, has several problems: a) the higher education enrolment data does not cover all higher education providers; b) vocational education students are not included; and c) other temporary visa holders in Australia are not included.

These omissions should lead to an under-estimate of the temporary visa population and, after their deduction, an over-estimate of the ‘domestic’ population.

To get a more accurate temporary population figure, I asked the Department of Home Affairs for data on 19 year old temporary visa holders in Australia on 30/06/2024, the date of the ABS population estimate. Some of these visa holders may not satisfy the population count rule – that the person is or will be in Australia for at least 12 months in a 16 month period. However, people with temporary visas who satisfy the 12/16 rule but who were temporarily absent from Australia on 30/06/2024 are omitted from the count.

Read More »

Senate inquiry submission on mass cancelling courses for international students, banning new higher education providers, and Indigenous demand driven funding for medical courses

Andrew Norton2 Comments

Update 28/11/2025: The Senate passed some amendments to this bill. These are noted in the original posts.

————————————————————————————————-

Senate inquiry submissions are due on Friday for the Education Legislation Amendment (Integrity and Other Measures) Bill 2025.

I am releasing my late draft submission in case it helps people finalising their own submissions and to identify any errors or omissions on my part.

Update 17/11/25: Final submission on the Senate committee website.

It builds on my three prior blog posts on the subject – on mass cancelling courses for international students, on a de facto ban on new higher education providers, and on extending Indigenous demand driven funding to medical courses.

Mass cancelling CRICOS course registrations

The main new content in the submission is description of existing legislative powers that can achieve the same claimed policy goals as the course cancellation proposal.

The practical effect of the bill, if it passes, would be to enable the suspension of the rule of law. It would allow the minister to make decisions according to vague criteria, without consulting anyone or considering other relevant laws. Due process would be abolished; providers could be penalised with course cancellation even if they have followed the law and acted ethically at all times.

It shocks me that this Trump-style bid to rule by executive order has even been introduced into Parliament. It’s staggering that, given nearly a year to think again since its original defeat last year, the government has brought back a bill that is, in some places, even more defective than their first attempt. I am referring here to removing the requirement to consult TEQSA or ASQA before cancelling a course on ‘standard of delivery’ grounds.

Read More »

The education minister should not have the power to cancel ‘classes of courses’ for international students

Andrew NortonLeave a comment

Update 28/11/2025: Last night the Senate passed the ESOS amendment bill with Coalition amendments. While I still believe this provision counts as very poor public policy – for reasons exanded up in my Senate inquiry submission – the Coalition changes do improve things somewhat. These are noted in the text below.

—————————————————————————————————-

The government is having another go at its 2024 Education Services for Overseas Students (ESOS) legislation, reintroducing it earlier this month minus the enrolment caps that saw it blocked in the Senate last November.

This post draws on and adds to things I wrote last year about proposed ministerial powers to suspend and cancel ‘classes of courses’.

The amendments discussed in this post were partly why I regarded the 2024 ESOS amendment bill as the single worst piece of higher education related legislation to come before the Parliament in my career.

What took it beyond standard bad policy was its use of broad ministerial discretion with minimal constraints on how it is exercised. That creates rule of law problems, making it hard to know in advance what the rules are. If passed, the amendments could lead to some education providers being arbitrarily punished for the actions of others.

Legislative references are to the section numbers of the ESOS Act 2000, as they are or as they would be if the bill passes unamended.

A mass course cancellation power

The bill gives the education minister power to simultaneously suspend or cancel multiple ESOS course registrations at multiple providers: division 1AB. It does this by making the unit of regulation a ‘class of courses’ – the definition of which is discussed below.

This mass cancellation power differs from existing laws that give the ‘ESOS agency’ (TEQSA in higher ed, ASQA in VET) power to suspend or cancel the registration of specific courses or specific providers: sections 83 to 92. It also differs from the current power of the immigration minister to issue a ‘suspension certificate’ to a provider. This can be done in specified circumstances such as fraud in visa applications, students breaching visa conditions, and other visa issues: sections 97 to 103.

Read More »