Proposed amendments to the student places capping and needs based funding bill

Jason Clare’s student places capping bill appeared in the Senate several times last week, but there were no votes on substantive amendments. Parliament does not sit again until 12 October.

It is clear, however, that agreement has been reached on amendments that will secure its passage through the Senate. Greens Senator Mehreen Faruqi said in the Senate on Wednesday 16 September that the Greens had ‘secured’ twelve amendments. There are twelve Greens amendments on the bill’s home page, so I will assume that this is the same twelve, although I could be mistaken.

This post summarises the proposed amendments, focusing on the Greens and the Liberals, as both have the numbers to get an amendment through if Labor agrees. The Greens, the Coalition and cross-benchers combined could also pass amendments Labor does not support.

I mostly do not discuss Senator David Pocock’s proposed amendments, because on his own he cannot sway a Senate decision. But he had a high level of intellectual engagement with the bill and proposed sensible changes. He is particularly good on something that the government is particularly bad at – putting rules scrutinised by parliament over ministerial and administrative discretion.

A floor number of places

On the bill’s introduction the explanatory memorandum indicated a floor number of Commonwealth supported places was intended, but this was not reflected in the bill itself.

In the House of Representatives a government amendment created a ‘core student load’ minimum number of places for public universities, although the amendment does not preclude year-on-year reductions in places.

But there was no corresponding requirement that the minister set a ‘total allocation pool’ of Commonwealth supported places sufficient to cover all the minimum ‘core student load’ allocations.

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Tony Burke’s changes to student visa policy – first draft on secondary visa holders

As foreshadowed in recent weeks, Tony Burke has today announced changes to student visa policy. Unfortunately at the moment – about 5.30pm on 17 September – there is little detail other than what has been given to journalists and Burke’s National Press Club address. I will update this post as necessary when more information is available.

The key changes are restrictions on secondary visa holders, for both students and temporary graduate visa holders, and additional limits on changing courses.

It appears that the secondary visa holder changes are prospective and won’t apply to students already in Australia, but this needs cross-checking against more policy detail. In the first draft of this post I will focus on secondary visa holder restrictions.

Summary of secondary student-related visa numbers

I analysed secondary student visa holder numbers earlier this month. Some key points from this analysis:

  • In recent years, annual secondary student visa holder grants have been in the 45,000-49,000 range.
  • Based on age group analysis, 27-28% of them are the children of students (proxy of age 19 years or less).
  • The ‘stock’ of secondary student visa holders present in Australia on a given day is already well off its peak of 84,846 in mid-2024, and was 67,549 on 31 July.
  • The flows and stocks of secondary student visa holders look anomalous. I think this is largely explained by a surge in secondary student visa grants in 2022-23 (77,599). Their primary visa holders have now mostly completed their courses and moved to temporary graduate visas or left the country, so outflows from secondary student visas have exceeded inflows.
  • As a result, as of 31 July secondary temporary graduate visa holders outnumber secondary student visa holders, 73,704 to 67,549.
  • Adult secondary student visa holders are likely to be an important aspect of the economics of coming to Australia for some students, with declared earnings of $1.3 billion in 2022-23. Secondary temporary graduate visa holders earned a similar amount.

New restrictions on secondary student visa holders

In line with recent policymaking preferences, the following groups will be exempt from restrictions on secondary student visa holders: research students, foreign affairs and defence sponsored students, students from the Pacific Islands, Timor-Leste and ASEAN countries. We can track their numbers through the student visa grants data. Over the last decade these visa categories have typically led to 10-11,000 annual secondary student visa grants. There was a spike in 2022-23, which included pent-up demand from the COVID border closure years.

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Pathways to permanent residence for former international students

The Australian government is trying, without much success to date, to reduce the number of long-term temporary migrants. For student-related visa holders – people with student visas, temporary graduate visas, or former international students on bridging visas – this is primarily about reducing inflows of new visa holders and increasing outflows of existing visa holders. Another important element, however, is moving former students to permanent visas.

This post looks at recent trends in former international students achieving permanent residence. It concludes with a discussion of the subclass 482 Skills in Demand visa, which offes a new route to PR.

Permanent visas

My main data source is the Department of Home Affairs Student visa and Temporary Graduate visa program report. It only reports former students transitioning from these visas, and not those with another temporary visa prior to PR. An ABS analysis up to the 2021 Census found that over half the 587,000 former student visa holders with PR had first held three or more temporary visas. This total includes secondary applicants, who made up about a quarter of the total.

The Home Affairs data includes former students moving to visas that are probable sources of PR, which I discuss below. There is no primary/secondary visa holder split. As I showed in an earlier post, secondary visa holders are a significant share of the potential PR population, especially for temporary graduate visa holders.

Since 2022-23 the annual number of former international student visa holders getting PR has increased significantly. Before COVID it was around 20,000 a year, after COVID it was around 31,000 a year. These are primarily work-related visas, with the subclass 190 state or territory Skilled Nominated visa the largest category.

One-step moves from a student visa have become less common. Their share of the total halved from 40% of the total in 2019-20 to 20% in 2024-25. The two-step track – student, temporary graduate visa – to PR has become more common.

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The coming cuts to student-related secondary temporary visa holders

Last week The Australian reported on apparent forthcoming limits on student secondary visa holders, the partners and children of the primary visa holder students. This has been rumoured for months. Along with long-foreshadowed changes to points-tested permanent visas, restricting secondary visa holders is a major yet-to-be-deployed policy weapon against temporary migration.

This post looks at the characteristics of and trends in student-related secondary visa holders.

Student-related secondary visa population trends

While students rather than temporary graduate visa holders seem to be the main policy target, as the chart below shows the secondary student visa holder population is already trending down, while temporary graduate secondary visa holders are increasing. The overall totals have fluctuated in a narrow range around 140,000 since late 2023.

Student secondary visa grants

As the chart above suggests, the relationship between student and temporary graduate secondary visas has changed over time. The recent temporary graduate takeover partly reflects a prior spike in secondary student visa grants, shown in the chart below. This was part of a high general increase in student-related visa numbers due to pent-up demand and policy incentives I described in an earlier post.

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The proposed new funding system, part 6: Private universities and non-university higher education providers

The funding system I have described parts 1 to 5 of this series of posts applies in full to the higher education providers listed on ‘Table A’ of the Higher Education Support Act 2003. The public universities and the Batchelor Institute of Indigenous Tertiary Education appear on Table A.

This post looks at the situation of other higher education providers. This includes 5 private universities, 8 university colleges and 166 other higher education providers.

Provider registration by TEQSA does not confer any funding entitlements. It is necessary but not sufficient for funding.

No non-Table A provider has any statutory right to Commonwealth supported places. Four of the five private universities are, however, listed on Table B of HESA 2003. This entitles them to research funding and some other government funding but not CSPs. This post describes how non-Table A providers can get CSPs under the new system.

All legislative references in what follows are to the Higher Education Support Act 2003 unless otherwise specified, ‘current’ signalling the legislation now in force, ‘new’ signalling the amending bill, the  Universities Accord (Opening the Doors of Opportunity) Bill 2026.

Eligibility for Commonwealth supported places

In the new funding system, as now, eligibility for Commonwealth supported places is based on history and politics, not any objective criteria.

The minister, rather than ATEC, will decide whether a provider should be eligible for CSPs. This is done by putting providers on a list in the Commonwealth Grant Scheme Guidelines: new section 30-1(10(a)(ii).

We can see the current policy on adding providers from the 2026 funding agreements. They make reference to CSPs for TAFEs and ‘other high-quality not-for-profit specialist providers’. Five TAFEs have been added since last year. NIDA is also new to the list. The only new not-for-profit is Excelsia University College, although I would not call it a specialist provider, as CSP allocations to teaching, early childhood, social work and counselling courses suggest.

There is no specific power for ATEC to advise on provider additions, but possibly it could do so as incidental to advisory subjects in section 41 of the ATEC Act 2026 including (a) policy settings for higher education and (e) the ‘diversity of the higher education system’.

While eligibility is conferred by the minister ATEC will decide whether or not to allocate CSPs.

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Rewards and penalties under ATEC and the new funding system

This post in an overview of rewards and penalties available to ATEC as it enforces mission based compact terms and student places allocations.

By the standards of recent higher education regulation the ATEC compliance regime seems relatively weak. This may reflect a trade-off between maximising administrative discretion and creating clear laws to which fines could be attached.

The only automatic penalty universities face under the new system is for enrolling more students than the bureaucrats think they should have.

Rewards – the strange absence of mission funding

Despite the word ‘mission’ in the compact title and reference to university missions in the ATEC Act 2026 nothing in the original ATEC legislation, or the Universities Accord (Opening the Doors of Opportunity) Bill 2026 introduced late last month, gives ATEC any power to support universities in achieving their mission other than by allocating additional Commonwealth supported places.

A mission fund could have provided a balance to homogenising compact targets. But no such fund is planned and no legal provision under which it could be paid is in the current or amending legislation. With no mission funding the compacts are just another compliance exercise.

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ATEC’s allocation of international student commencements

In presentations earlier this year I told audiences that the government will try again to impose provider-level caps on international students. Its 2024 attempt failed due to a surprise Coalition-Green alliance in the Senate. The basis of my statement was ATEC ‘s legislation, which said that it would ‘allocate a maximum number of international student commencements to ESOS registered providers’ (emphasis added).

But for unexplained reasons the government is backing away from tough provider-level international student enrolment limits. The Universities Accord (Opening the Doors of Opportunity) Bill 2026 gives ATEC a role in allocating commencements to higher education providers, but it is something closer to current national planning level allocations for new overseas student commencement (NOSC) than a hard capped system.

The basic process will be that the minister sets a total allocation pool of international student commencements, and ATEC then decides on the distribution between universities and other higher education providers.

As described in detail below, this process has very high levels of ministerial and ATEC discretion, to the point of both being able to reduce allocations after the students have started their courses.

While there should be much better processes than those set in the bill, at least for non-public university providers it is not obviously significantly worse than what we have now.

Legislative references are to the Universities Accord (Australian Tertiary Education Commission) Act 2026 unless otherwise specified, ‘current’ signalling the legislation now in force, ‘new’ signalling the amending bill.

International student allocation pool

As for domestic students in Commonwealth supported places, the minister for education will start by setting a total pool of ‘overseas students that may commence a course of education with ESOS registered higher education providers during a specified period’: new section 46B(1).

What does the minister take into account when setting the international student allocation pool?

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ATEC’s interim statement of strategic priorities

Yesterday the Australian Tertiary Education Commission issued an interim statement of strategic priorities. This statement will guide university mission based compacts for 2027. This post covers the legal status of the statement, its apparent approach to management of the sector via compacts, and what it proposes in the areas of skills, First Nations, equity, teaching quality, VET-higher education relations, and research.

Decision-making under the ATEC system

When fully operational the ATEC decision-making process will operate in the sequence shown in the chart below.

Despite the ATEC Act 2026 officially coming into force on 29 April 2026, ATEC’s interim statement seems to be operating in the legal limbo the organisation has been in since being established as the ‘interim ATEC’ in July 2025.

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Higher education participation rates at age 19 – a migration data update

For many years I have published estimates of the domestic higher education participation rate at age 19. That age was chosen as it is the modal age of domestic higher education students.

To calculate a participation rate we need a count of domestic higher education students (Australian or NZ citizen, permanent resident) and a count of the ‘domestic’ population, that is all Australian or NZ citizens and permanent residents. There are significant issues with calculating both numbers – explained in this post from last year.

One of these issues is that the ABS population figures are inflated by temporary migrants. They need to be removed from the count to get a ‘domestic’ population figure. The ABS does not provide a temporary visa/domestic breakdown. As a workaround, my participation time series deducts international 19 year old higher education students from the ABS 19 year old population estimate.

A new methodology

This onshore higher education international students aged 19 correction, however, has several problems: a) the higher education enrolment data does not cover all higher education providers; b) vocational education students are not included; and c) other temporary visa holders in Australia are not included.

These omissions should lead to an under-estimate of the temporary visa population and, after their deduction, an over-estimate of the ‘domestic’ population.

To get a more accurate temporary population figure, I asked the Department of Home Affairs for data on 19 year old temporary visa holders in Australia on 30/06/2024, the date of the ABS population estimate. Some of these visa holders may not satisfy the population count rule – that the person is or will be in Australia for at least 12 months in a 16 month period. However, people with temporary visas who satisfy the 12/16 rule but who were temporarily absent from Australia on 30/06/2024 are omitted from the count.

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The Australian Tertiary Education Commission legislation, Part 6, International student caps

Under legislation to establish the Australian Tertiary Education Commission, introduced into Parliament in November 2025, a function of ATEC is to ‘allocate a maximum number of international student commencements to ESOS registered providers at the direction of the Minister’. This appears as section 11(h) of the Universities Accord (Australian Tertiary Education Commission) Bill 2025.

Does this create a power to cap international student numbers?

The ATEC bill’s explanatory memorandum states that further legislation will set out a framework for how international student commencements will be allocated (p. 8). But does section 11(h) on its own create a power to cap international students independently of this framework?

On its plain meaning I think it does. Section 33(1) of the Acts Interpretation Act 1901 says that: ‘When an Act confers a function or imposes a duty, then the power may be exercised and the functions or duty must be performed from time to time as the occasion requires.’

The minister can, by legislative instrument, create rules ‘necessary or convenient for carrying out or giving effect to this Act’, adding more detail to how the caps would work: section 75(1)(b), Universities Accord (Australian Tertiary Education Commission) Bill 2025.

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