The government has grand hopes for additional higher education participation, on the way to 80% tertiary attainment by 2050. But how they will fund enrolment growth is much less clear.

The government is setting itself a double challenge – not just delivering more domestic student places but simultaneously reducing ‘over-enrolments’, student contribution only places with no public subsidy. In a May provider briefing, ATEC put the number of over-enrolled places in 2026 at about 60,000.

On calculations in my Senate inquiry submission I estimated that, on 2025 numbers, maximum over-enrolment capacity under the government’s restrictions would be about 22,500 – on the unlikely assumption that every university could precisely use its full allowance.

With a low over-enrolment cap the government needs at least 37,500 additional fully-funded places just to maintain 2026 enrolments. That would cost taxpayers around $500 million without creating a single additional place.

The government has delayed this expense with transition arrangements for currently over-enrolled universities, but that is the goal they have set themselves.

How many new places has the government promised?

In his second reading speech for the funding reform bill, Jason Clare said that ‘next year there will be 16,000 more places for more students in the system. The year after that there will be another 16,000. The year after that another 16,000. In 2030, this increases to 19,000 additional fully funded Commonwealth supported places.’

While I would not necessarily take this at face value – the minister’s statements don’t always match reality – ‘more places for more students’ implies places over-and-above the conversion of over-enrolment places, although for the many universities that are already over-enrolled it’s hard to do that without also adjusting up their over-enrolment ‘glidepath’.

In the May provider briefing ATEC says it has 37,000 CSPs to allocate in 2027, of which 7,000 are already committed to the nuclear submarine program, regional study hubs and non-Table A providers. That leaves 30,000 places. In the provider briefing they talk about 15,000 to 20,000 of the 30,000 going to convert over-enrolments to fully-funded places. But to align with the minister’s 16,000 ‘more places for more students’ the over-enrolment conversions should be more like 14,000 places.

What do the Budget papers say?

Under the new funding bill, the Commonwealth Grant Scheme will continue funding the Commonwealth contribution component of Commonwealth supported places. Budget projections on the CGS are currently our best guide to future funding.

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